The starting point of the world game is the United States. Work was an important factor in the determi.. – MK

The starting point of the world game is the United States. Employment was the key factor determining the US economy after the second half of this year. US economic policy was determined by the employment environment, which affected the world through exchange rates and money flows. However, if the US judges its economy and policies based on false statistics that did not accurately reflect the truth, how should it be viewed? Suddenly, my head became complicated.

The situation is like this. A widely used indicator to judge the US economy is the monthly increase in the number of non-farm payrolls. This is because it shows stronger employment conditions than other indicators such as the unemployment rate. This sign is followed by two updates in the next two months after the first Friday of each month. Initially, the estimate is published after sampling more than 120,000 companies, and now the number of samples is greatly expanded to more than 12 million and improved, so it takes time. Accuracy increases over time, but the degree to which it affects markets and policies is greatest when it is first published. Another example is the sharp increase in prices when the number of jobs increased in September announced at the end of the week was 254,000, which exceeded market expectations by about 100,000.

The problem is that this year, the gap between the first published number of the mark and the final number, which will be released two months later, is growing. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), on average, the latest news was about 6,000 more than the fixed number in 2022. The difference increased to 30,000 in 2023 and an average of 44,000 in July 2024, when the fixed number is announced. Except during periods of rapid economic change such as the financial crisis and COVID-19, this gap is unprecedented.

It’s even more surprising when you enter a case. The increase in US non-farm payrolls in July, which was announced in early August, was 114,000. It was 60,000 below market expectations at the time. Then, US prices fell as fears of a recession gripped the market. After the US, Korean and Japanese prices dropped, and “Black Monday” became a reality. The first revision of the number of job cases in July, announced in September, was 89,000, falling below the 100,000 mark in relation to the recession. Then, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) made a “big fire” by lowering the interest rate by 0.5 percent in the name of preventing the deterioration of the job. However, the number of job gains in July announced in October was 144,000. The number was about 60,000 more than the September announcement. The average difference is more than 60 percent. If this indicator was known a month ago, the ‘big cut’ would have been crazy. However, the interest rate that has been lowered cannot be raised again. One of the reasons why the world market fluctuated with the US ‘big cut’ was really ‘lie’.

Others say that the situation will worsen in other countries if the statistics of the developed world are at this level. Or, some doubt that the US Department of Government of the US Government to make statistics before the US Presidential Preferences in November may be visible. There were negative statistics after the increase in the world market, including the US, since August. It is difficult to find out whether to blame the statistics that do not reflect the truth or to blame the “lightness” of the market, which prompts consideration of even small changes in statistics. However, the United States has lost face as a statistically advanced country, and global economic instability has increased.

Stockfish: In the Middle Ages, countries with the technology to catch and store fish such as cod and herring dominated the economy for a long time. Stockfish is a word that symbolizes the economic power of the country at that time. In my column, I would like to provide a perspective to analyze and explain the economy of the 21st century.

[RO YOUNG WOO, International Economic Reporter]