Top 5 things to watch in the market next week By Investing.com

Investing.com – This week’s US inflation data for September will be eagerly awaited after Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report reassured investors who had been worried about that the economy is weak. The Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of its September meeting, earnings season is underway, and oil prices look set to remain unchanged amid rising political tensions. Here’s your take on what’s happening in the market for the coming week.

1. US CPI

Thursday’s data for September is expected to show that price pressures continued to moderate at the end of the third quarter. The data, which comes after Friday’s strong jobs report, is likely to shape expectations around the size and pace of Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

data on Friday is also expected to show a drop in inflation.

The data may reassure the Fed that inflation is on a steady path back to its 2% target.

The Fed kicked off its easing cycle last month with a 50 basis point high and Friday’s jobs report contradicts the central bank’s rate hike in November.

“Next week, the September CPI will be an important data release. If prices rise faster than expected on strong labor data, the chances of the Fed skipping the November meeting are will increase,” UBS analysts said in a note on Friday. Recall that in the “spot sheet” released after the September FOMC meeting, almost half of the participants thought that a reduction of 50-75 bps by the end of the year would be appropriate, which means only 0-25 bps to reduce this. year.”

2. Feed the minutes

The Fed will announce its September meeting on Wednesday with investors looking for signs of how officials are thinking about the pace of further easing.

Some comments on the factors that led policymakers to reach a consensus on the 50bps cut will also be noted.

Investors will also get a chance to hear from several Fed officials next week, including Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Adriana Kugler and Lorie Logan.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s report may be affected by the latest weather disturbance.

3. The rewards are ongoing

US third-quarter earnings season is about to begin, with what will be a test for the stock market near record highs and trading at higher prices.

Major financial firms including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: ), Wells Fargo (NYSE: ) and BlackRock (NYSE: ) both reported on Friday.

Bank results provide an important view of the economy, including the strength of demand for loans. Investors will also be watching for signs of whether the Fed’s big rate hike last month is already stimulating the economy by boosting auto sales or buying other big-ticket items.

Other companies reporting results during the week include PepsiCo (NASDAQ: ) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: ).

Bullish investors hope that the results will justify rising stock market prices. It is up 20% for the year to date, and is still trading near record highs despite recent volatility caused by rising political tensions in the Middle East.

4. Oil prices

Oil prices rose on Friday and settled for their biggest weekly gain in more than a year on the growing threat of conflict in the Middle East region, although gains were limited when President of the United States Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iran’s oil reserves.

Israel has vowed to punish Iran for firing a series of missiles into Israel last Tuesday after Israel killed the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The events have oil analysts warning consumers about the possible consequences of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Weekly, it gained more than 8%, the most weekly since January 2023. it gained 9.1% weekly, the most since March 2023.

Iran is an OPEC+ member that produces about 3.2 million barrels per day or 3% of world production. The group’s production capacity should allow other members to increase production if Iranian supplies are disrupted, reducing oil price gains.

5. RBNZ

It meets on Wednesday and some market watchers believe it could follow the Fed’s lead and cut rates by half a point.

The central bank cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years at its last meeting in August, a year ahead of its forecasts, and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said he I would like to cut two more at Christmas.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its September meeting on Tuesday, and market watchers are waiting for clues about its hawkish stance. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is on tour to speak on the same day.

–Reuters contributed to the report